The mathematical model presents Oscar predictions as pure, unbiased data science — no subjective bias, just numbers telling the story of who should win based on historical patterns and awards season momentum.
Behind the numbers, this is really about Paul Thomas Anderson finally breaking through after 14 nominations without a win — the math may say One Battle After Another, but Hollywood's sentiment could tilt the race in ways no model predicts.
Sinners made Oscar history with a record 16 nominations — the most ever for a single film. The Oscars ceremony takes place on March 15, 2026. Ben Zauzmer has been publishing these mathematical predictions for 15 consecutive years.
This year's Oscar race is a statistical thriller. Whether you're backing Ryan Coogler's cultural phenomenon or Paul Thomas Anderson's critical darling, the numbers say it's going to be a photo finish — and that's before factoring in Oscar night's inevitable surprises.
For the 15th straight year, Ben Zauzmer is bringing the numbers to Hollywood's biggest night — and his mathematical model has delivered a verdict that's far from predictable. The Oscars on March 15 will feature a record-setting showdown between One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners, with the two films set to duel in an unprecedented 11 categories across 98 years of Academy Awards history.
Sinners already made its mark by earning a record-smashing 16 nominations — a feat with no historical parallel, meaning Zauzmer's model had to extrapolate from incomplete data. Yet the math isn't swayed by sentiment: despite Sinners' nomination dominance, One Battle After Another holds the edge in best picture due to its commanding run through nearly every precursor award. The model notes that 44 percent of films leading in nominations don't win best picture — a counterintuitive stat that gives One Battle After Another the edge despite Sinners' historic nomination count.
The acting categories tell a different story. Best actress is the closest thing to a lock — Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and Actor Award, making her the clear mathematical favorite. But best actor is a statistical coin flip: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) leads Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) by just 0.9 percentage points, with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) also hovering above 20 percent. For supporting actor, Sean Penn grabbed eleventh-hour momentum with BAFTA and Actor Award wins for One Battle After Another, putting him in pole position over a crowded field with no clear frontrunner.
Perhaps the most compelling storyline lives in best director, where Paul Thomas Anderson — with 14 career nominations and zero wins — is finally positioned to break through. The math gives him three bites at the apple (director, best picture, adapted screenplay), and Zauzmer notes that only Bradley Cooper has more nominations without a win. Anderson's historical drought makes this category feel less like a prediction and more like destiny.
The full breakdown shows both films splitting the wealth: Sinners edges original screenplay and scores strong in casting (a new category with no historical data, so Zauzmer polled 90 Casting Society members), while One Battle After Another dominates adapted screenplay and editing. Frankenstein, meanwhile, threatens a technical sweep in production design, costume design, and makeup — a feat only five films have ever achieved. The numbers don't lie, but as Zauzmer himself notes, "Oscar probabilities are never 100 percent" — just ask Up in the Air, which lost to Precious despite winning every major screenplay precursor.
